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RetSim v1.4.0 iThis simulator examines whether a consumption path is sustainable, allowing for a one-time market shock. Enter Starting Wealth and desired spending before and after retirement. Model parameters are in the accordions above and summarized in All Parameters. All dollars are real as of simulation start unless otherwise noted.

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Life Events
Retirement Age66
Life Expectancy (yrs from start)37 yrs
Earnings iEnter income from work and other sources here. Dividends and interest are computed elsewhere, so this is just income from work, consulting, net rent, and other property or asset income.
Pre-Retirement Earnings$0
Post-Retirement Earnings$0
Social Security i Social Security

Benefits begin at age 70 in this model (delayed claiming for maximum benefit).

Full retirement age is 67 for those born after 1960. Delaying to 70 increases benefits ~8%/yr beyond FRA. $0
Cash Cushion (min balance) $0
Returns & Inflation i S&P 500 Price Appreciation · Shiller Data

50yr 75yr
Price apprec. CAGR9.3%8.5%
Price apprec. avg10.6%9.9%
Dividend yield avg2.7%3.1%
CPI inflation CAGR3.8%3.5%
Real price return 5.3% 4.5%

50yr = 1976–2025 · 75yr = 1951–2025 · Real price = (1+nom)÷(1+CPI)−1
Stock Appreciation (nominal) i S&P 500 Price Appreciation · Shiller Data

50yr 75yr
Price apprec. CAGR9.3%8.5%
Price apprec. avg10.6%9.9%
Dividend yield avg2.7%3.1%
CPI inflation CAGR3.8%3.5%
Real price return 5.3% 4.5%

50yr = 1976–2025 · 75yr = 1951–2025 · Real price = (1+nom)÷(1+CPI)−1 7.5%
Stock Div (nominal) i S&P 500 Dividend Yield (1975–2024)

Avg: ~2.7%/yr
Peaked ~5.4% (early 1980s); declined to ~1.2% today
Taxed as capital gains in non-retirement accounts; reinvested in retirement accounts · Source: Shiller 1.0%
Bond Yield (nominal) i 10-Year Treasury Yield (1975–2024)

Avg: ~5.7%/yr
Range: 2.4% (2020) – 15.8% (1981)
Current: ~4.3%
Interest extracted as income; bond balance stays flat in nominal terms 4.0%
Property (nominal)3.5%
Alternatives (nominal)6.0%
Inflation i US CPI Inflation (1975–2024)

CAGR: ~3.8%/yr
Post-GFC avg (2009–2019): ~1.7%/yr
Post-COVID peak: 9.1% (Jun 2022)
Current: ~3%
All values are real (inflation-adjusted). Inflation converts nominal returns to real. · Source: Shiller / BLS 3.0%
Market Shock i Historic S&P 500 Peak-to-Trough Declines

PeriodDeclineContext
1929–1932−83 to −86%Great Depression
2007–2009−57%Global Financial Crisis
1937–1938−49 to −54%Depression-era recession
2000–2002−49%Dot-com collapse
1973–1974−48%Oil crisis + stagflation
1968–1970−36%Inflation + recession
2020 (Feb–Mar)−34%COVID shock
1987−33%Black Monday
2022−25%Inflation / rate shock
Stock Loss40%
Bond Loss15%
Property Loss20%
Alternatives Loss20%
Muni Loss10%
Cash Loss0%
Tax Rates i What gets taxed — and at which rate

Income (or Asset)Rate applied
EarningsOrdinary income
NR stock dividendsCapital gains
NR bond interestOrdinary income
Cash interestOrdinary income
Retirement withdrawalsOrdinary income
NR bonds soldCap gains (basis-adj.)
NR stocks soldCap gains (basis-adj.)
Alternatives + Property (sale)Cap gains (basis-adj.)
Property (tax)Prop Tax Rate × property value

NR = non-retirement account
Earnings / Ordinary Income45%
Capital Gains i Top CA Long-Term Capital Gains Rate

20.0% Federal (top bracket)
+ 3.8% Net Investment Income Tax (NIIT)
+ 13.3% California top rate
= 37.1% combined

CA taxes cap gains as ordinary income. NIIT applies above $200K/$250K AGI. 37%
Property Tax Rate1.0%
Spending (Before Retiring)
$0
Annual spending iThis is spending after income taxes — i.e., post-tax consumption. The model will compute assets to sell to finance this level of consumption, taking into account the entered tax rates and the cost-basis for non-retirement assets that are sold. Property taxes are computed separately from the Property Tax Rate slider.
Spending (After Retirement)
$0
Annual spending (initial) iLike pre-retirement, this is post-tax consumption — spending after income taxes. The model will compute assets to sell to finance this level of consumption, taking into account the entered tax rates and the cost-basis for non-retirement assets that are sold. Property taxes are computed separately from the Property Tax Rate slider.
Final Wealth
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Starting Wealth
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Market Shock
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Retirement
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Net Worth
Withdrawal Rate
Consumption
Taxes Paid